3rd Edition Of Plant Science and Molecular Biology World Conference 2026

Abstract

The Mediterranean Basin is recognized as a global climate change hotspot, experiencing warming rates that exceed the global average and projected increases in summer aridity. This study quantified twenty-first-century climate trajectories in the Fez–Meknes region of Morocco, a major center of distribution for several endemic and near-endemic thyme species, including Thymus zygis, Thymus maroccanus, and Thymus atlanticus. Baseline climatic conditions (1970–2000) were derived from WorldClim 2.1, while future projections were obtained from downscaled CMIP6 simulations based on the MPI-ESM1-2-HR model under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) across four future periods between 2021 and 2100. Changes in annual mean temperature (BIO1) and annual precipitation (BIO12) were quantified through climatic anomalies and evaluated against ecological thresholds reported for Thymus species. Temporal temperature trends were assessed using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. Under baseline conditions, the region exhibited a mean annual temperature of 15.1 °C and annual precipitation of 447 mm. By 2081–2100, annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.2 °C under SSP1-2.6, 2.8 °C under SSP2-4.5, and 4.9 °C under SSP5-8.5, while precipitation is projected to change by −0.3%, −16.8%, and −19.9%, respectively. Warming trends were consistent across all scenarios and intensified under higher radiative forcing. These climatic changes are expected to progressively reduce suitable conditions for Thymus populations in lowland areas, whereas the higher elevations of the Middle Atlas may act as climatic refugia. The projected shifts are likely to influence seed germination, phenological dynamics, essential oil composition, and interspecific competition. Overall, the results highlight the vulnerability of endemic thyme species to future climate change and provide a scientific basis for conservation planning and sustainable valorization strategies in Mediterranean mountain ecosystems.
Keywords: Thymus; climate change; CMIP6; Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs); climatic refugia; Mediterranean Basin; Morocco; species conservation; temperature trends; mountain ecosystems