3rd Edition Of Plant Science and Molecular Biology World Conference 2026

Abstract

Carob (Ceratonia siliqua L.) is a keystone agroforestry species of the Mediterranean basin, valued for its drought tolerance and the socio-economic importance of its bioactive pods. However, ongoing climate change may alter its agroclimatic suitability across major production areas. This study assessed the potential impacts of future climate conditions on the suitability and resilience of carob cultivation in three flagship Mediterranean regions: Souss-Massa (Morocco), Andalusia (Spain), and Antalya (Turkey). To achieve this objective, two ecophysiology-based indicators were developed: the Carob Agroclimatic Suitability Index (CASI), integrating five key bioclimatic variables (BIO1, BIO5, BIO6, BIO12, and BIO15), and the Climate Resilience Index (CRI), calculated as the ratio between future and current CASI values. Simulations were conducted using an ensemble of three CMIP6 global climate models (IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, and BCC-CSM2-MR) under SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios from 2030 to 2100. Under current climatic conditions, Andalusia exhibited the highest mean suitability (CASI = 0.470 ± 0.057), followed by Antalya (0.429 ± 0.044) and Souss-Massa (0.374 ± 0.040), with highly significant regional differences (Kruskal–Wallis χ² = 2055.8, p < 0.001). Across all regions, suitability declined progressively from SSP126 to SSP585 and intensified toward the end of the century. The greatest relative reduction was projected for Souss-Massa, where CASI decreased by 7.0% under SSP585 by 2100 and the first unsuitable and moderately degraded areas emerged. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the index, with a minimum Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.92 across weighting scenarios. Overall, the CASI–CRI framework provides a transparent and operational approach for evaluating climate-driven agroclimatic changes and offers an alternative to occurrence-based species distribution models. The results identify persistent coastal agroclimatic refugia in all three regions, supporting targeted adaptation strategies for sustainable carob cultivation under future climate change.
Keywords: Ceratonia siliqua; agroclimatic suitability; climate resilience; climate change; CMIP6; Mediterranean region; agroforestry; climate adaptation.